We Spoke at the Retail Investors Forum 2025
This week, the Retail Investors Forum took place, bringing together speakers including representatives of the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Russia, Moscow Exchange, as well as our colleagues — Senior Banker Anton Dzhugan and Investment Analyst Alexander Alekseevsky.
During his session, Alexander presented some of our ideas on commodity markets. Here is a brief overview:
1️⃣ Gold: Prices May Reach $4,000 per Ounce, but the Sustainability of This Level Is in Question
The current rise in gold prices is being driven by several factors: elevated geopolitical tensions and trade wars; demand for safe-haven assets that can serve as an alternative to U.S. Treasuries; a weaker U.S. dollar; and declining interest rates in the U.S., the eurozone and China.
In terms of demand dynamics, this is primarily reflected in the strongest inflows into gold ETFs in recent years.
From a speculative perspective, gold continues to look attractive. In our view, prices may reach $4,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026. There is also a significant probability that this could happen as early as this year.
Why might the $4,000 level prove unstable?
Inflows into ETFs are unstable and largely trend-driven.
Demand for gold from central banks and government institutions has started to decline.
Demand in the jewelry sector is also weakening.
Record gold prices are encouraging companies to increase production.
Over the long term, gold remains one of the most attractive safe-haven assets. However, given the significant rise in prices over the past year, risk management principles should be observed over the short and medium term, and investors should avoid building excessive positions in the hope of continued strong price growth.
2️⃣ Oil: An Opportunity to Profit Not from Rising Prices, but from a Decline
Why could oil prices fall?
OPEC+ is gradually increasing oil production. Saudi Arabia is no longer willing to lose market share.
The U.S. also continues to increase production. Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to lower oil prices as part of its efforts to combat inflation.
Against the backdrop of rising production and continued global trade tensions, there is a risk that the surplus in the oil market could expand to its highest levels in recent years over the coming months.
According to our estimates, Brent crude may return to $60 per barrel in 2026, implying downside potential of 9%. Key risks to this idea include a possible increase in sanctions pressure on Russia and active trade deal-making between the U.S. and other countries.
This is not an individual investment recommendation.
This week, the Retail Investors Forum took place, bringing together speakers including representatives of the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Russia, Moscow Exchange, as well as our colleagues — Senior Banker Anton Dzhugan and Investment Analyst Alexander Alekseevsky.
During his session, Alexander presented some of our ideas on commodity markets. Here is a brief overview:
1️⃣ Gold: Prices May Reach $4,000 per Ounce, but the Sustainability of This Level Is in Question
The current rise in gold prices is being driven by several factors: elevated geopolitical tensions and trade wars; demand for safe-haven assets that can serve as an alternative to U.S. Treasuries; a weaker U.S. dollar; and declining interest rates in the U.S., the eurozone and China.
In terms of demand dynamics, this is primarily reflected in the strongest inflows into gold ETFs in recent years.
From a speculative perspective, gold continues to look attractive. In our view, prices may reach $4,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026. There is also a significant probability that this could happen as early as this year.
Why might the $4,000 level prove unstable?
Inflows into ETFs are unstable and largely trend-driven.
Demand for gold from central banks and government institutions has started to decline.
Demand in the jewelry sector is also weakening.
Record gold prices are encouraging companies to increase production.
Over the long term, gold remains one of the most attractive safe-haven assets. However, given the significant rise in prices over the past year, risk management principles should be observed over the short and medium term, and investors should avoid building excessive positions in the hope of continued strong price growth.
2️⃣ Oil: An Opportunity to Profit Not from Rising Prices, but from a Decline
Why could oil prices fall?
OPEC+ is gradually increasing oil production. Saudi Arabia is no longer willing to lose market share.
The U.S. also continues to increase production. Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to lower oil prices as part of its efforts to combat inflation.
Against the backdrop of rising production and continued global trade tensions, there is a risk that the surplus in the oil market could expand to its highest levels in recent years over the coming months.
According to our estimates, Brent crude may return to $60 per barrel in 2026, implying downside potential of 9%. Key risks to this idea include a possible increase in sanctions pressure on Russia and active trade deal-making between the U.S. and other countries.
This is not an individual investment recommendation.